The performance of Yantai Wanhua is expected to im

2022-07-27
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Yantai Wanhua's performance is expected to gradually improve and actively explore and plan for the future

with the continuous increase of product prices and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, Yantai Wanhua (600309) is expected to gradually improve its performance. We temporarily maintain the performance forecast of EPS of 0.70 yuan in 2009 and 1.01 yuan in 2010. Based on the closing price on September 10, the dynamic PE of the company was 24.2 times in 2009 and 16.8 times in 2010. Compared with Shenwan new material industry, the PE company's valuation level is still low, so it is rated as "overweight"

mdi ex factory price increased continuously

according to Baichuan information, Yantai Wanhua MDI ex factory price increased by 300 yuan/ton to 18900 yuan/ton on August 31, which is the third increase in the company's pure MDI product price within half a year. Compared with the beginning of March (16600 yuan/ton), the ex factory price of pure MDI has increased by 13.86%. The price of aggregated MDI in the Yangtze River Delta also rose from 12300 yuan/ton in early March to 15800 yuan/ton at present, an increase of 28.46%

we believe that the driving force supporting the continuous rise of MDI prices mainly comes from two aspects:

first, the decline in supply. On the one hand, the main MDI manufacturers at home and abroad have successively entered the equipment maintenance stage. Among them, Yantai Wanhua plans to close its MDI unit in Yantai, Shandong Province in October for a 20 day overhaul, and Japan polyurethane company will conduct a 40 day overhaul of its 200000 t/a MDI unit in nanyo in September. It is understood that before the planned overhaul of the plant, Yantai Wanhua, Japan polyurethane company and other manufacturers have reduced the supply of MDI. On the other hand, affected by the expectation of economic downturn, first, we have listed some MDI manufacturers whose unit operating rates have been low since this year, resulting in a certain decline in supply

second, downstream demand gradually recovers. First, home appliances to the countryside continue to drive the demand for aggregate MDI. According to the statistics of the information system for home appliances to the countryside, in the first half of this year, a total of 9.6101 million sets of home appliances were sold to the countryside, with a sales amount of 16.229 billion yuan, and the monthly sales increased by an average of more than 40% month on month. Among the household appliances in the countryside, the sales of refrigerators reached 11.1 billion yuan, accounting for 68.5%. Polymerized MDI is the raw material of heat-insulating polyurethane foam used in refrigerators. Therefore, the demand for polymerized MDI is also strong when refrigerators continue to sell well. With the gradual and in-depth implementation of home appliances to the countryside, the sales prospect of aggregated MDI is optimistic. Secondly, the textile and garment industry resumed driving the pure MDI demand. The downstream of pure MDI is mainly sole sizing, synthetic leather, spandex, etc. In the first half of the year, the state raised the export tax rebate rate of textiles and clothing to 16%, and the textile industry revitalization plan was issued, which led to the recovery of the textile and clothing industry, and then the chemical fiber, shoe sole sizing, synthetic leather and other industries: in June, the year-on-year changes in the output of chemical fiber cloth were -1.50%, -0.37% and 0.51% respectively, and the output began to rise slowly in July; The price of spandex has risen from 43000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 48000 yuan/ton at present, an increase of 11.63%

since MDI product revenue accounts for more than 80% of the company's total revenue, it is believed that the continuous increase of MDI price since the first half of the year will significantly promote the company's performance in the second half of the year

actively explore and plan for the future

in 2005, China revised the design standard for energy efficiency of civil buildings and promulgated the design standard for energy efficiency of public buildings, requiring that new buildings must achieve 50% energy efficiency and 65% energy efficiency in 2010. It is estimated that if the above energy-saving standards are successfully implemented in 2010, it will bring more than 600000 tons of new demand to the MDI industry, and the demand will continue to grow rapidly in the future, with broad prospects for new markets. By the middle of 2010, the 300000 ton MDI project of Ningbo Wanhua is expected to be completed. At that time, the company's MDI capacity will reach 800000 tons/year, and will continue to be the leader in the domestic MDI industry. After the new production capacity is reached, the company can take advantage of the situation to explore new markets in the field of building energy conservation

in addition, the company's attempt to take advantage of the industry downturn to expand against the trend is also noteworthy. It is reported that Wanhua industrial group, the major shareholder of the company, is seeking to invest in borsodchem company in Hungary, which has 160000 tons of MDI capacity, but is currently in business difficulties due to the impact of the economic crisis. Just as domestic oil giants have frequently acquired overseas low-cost oil and gas assets recently, the group's investment in borsodchem is well timed. If the acquisition is successful, Wanhua will at least have the following benefits: first, it will obtain a production base in Europe and establish a solid foothold in Europe by directly but in fact about 70% of the plastics have failed before their design life; Secondly, it is beneficial for the company to try 3D printing technology to open the market in Dadu, Europe; Moreover, after the successful acquisition, the company's production scale was further expanded and its competitive advantage was enhanced

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