The performance of the hottest domestic coating ra

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The performance of domestic coating raw material market is generally poor

the performance of domestic coating raw material market is generally poor

December 17, 2014

[China coating information] the end of the year is approaching, the domestic chemical market is generally declining, the life of the coating raw material market is not very easy, the market competition is very fierce, the cost pressure is expanding and many other factors have led to the continuous downturn of the coating raw material market

the methanol market has been falling endlessly

in November, the methanol operating rate remained at a high level, resulting in the continuous increase of methanol supply, resulting in high port inventory. In addition, the downstream demand continued to be sluggish, making it difficult to effectively reduce inventory in the short term, which will restrict the price rise, significantly suppress methanol, and cause methanol to fluctuate and decline in the short term

the methanol inventory in East China has decreased, but the actual stress of the inventory in South China does not increase with the increase of external load, and the overall inventory of the port is still around 1million tons. According to the market situation, the current methanol inventory is slowly consumed, but domestic and imported goods still arrive at the port to supplement the consumed part. From this point of view, the overall demand for methanol is relatively slow, resulting in the continuous high inventory, and the upward trend of methanol is restricted to some extent

it is understood that the methanol supply in the last two months of the year will be basically in normal condition. The two units in Iran ZPC and Malaysia operate smoothly, and the methanol supply in the outer plate is relatively sufficient. At the same time, the methanol price difference between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia narrowed, the transit arbitrage space gradually narrowed, and the transit volume also decreased accordingly. Therefore, the methanol supply in the port was relatively sufficient in the fourth quarter, and the inventory consumption rate was still relatively slow. The data shows that at present, the methanol inventory in the port is 1.02 million tons. In the past, it was rare to have more than 700000 tons, and it is generally about 550000 tons. Therefore, under the high inventory, it is difficult for the methanol price center to move up significantly

the styrene market was depressed

the styrene market performance was relatively stable in this month, and the price basically remained above 10500 yuan/ton. In the middle of November, affected by the continuous decline of oil price, the market price of aromatics generally fell. Benzene reached the point where heavy metal elements were solidified in the soil and reduced their efficiency in entering crops, but ethylene rose against the trend due to the decline of inventory and other reasons. However, in late November, negative factors were highlighted, and styrene became one of the declining products. As of December 12, the price of styrene in East China was only 6200 yuan/ton, a drop of 47.7% compared with the highest level this year, and the price hit a new low in the past five years. The reason is that the collapse of crude oil and the downturn of downstream demand are the two major factors leading the styrene market

the price of pure benzene, the upstream product of styrene, closely follows the pace of oil prices. Since July this year, it has opened a downward channel. In the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the market transaction is more light, and the downward trend may continue until the end of the year. The continuous decline in the prices of upstream crude oil and pure benzene has led to a pessimistic operating mentality of merchants, who are independent of shipping at low prices. It is reported that the price difference between Asian styrene and upstream pure benzene has narrowed to USD 212.60/t on November 26. However, only when the price difference between the two is USD 250/T can non comprehensive producers make profits. The profits of other producers have shrunk significantly, and the market atmosphere is becoming increasingly tense

the sharp drop in crude oil, sluggish demand and the impact of import supply are the main reasons for the recent sharp decline in styrene prices. With the crude oil price falling into the abyss and the downstream market in the off-season, it is unlikely that styrene will rebound in the near future

the ethylene glycol market fluctuated downward

various forces in the domestic ethylene glycol market were numerous and complex, and the power competition was staged. Sometimes the panic of crude oil plummeting spread and ethylene glycol, and sometimes the sharp drop in basic inventory stimulated merchants' ambition to go long. Ethylene glycol staged a wide-ranging shock drama under the contest between the two forces. From the analysis, the trend of crude oil, PTA and the impact of ethylene glycol fundamentals are still the focus of attention

first of all: can the crude oil slump come true: at the meeting on November 27, OPEC made it clear that it would maintain the current output unchanged, and recently Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said that crude oil will continue to be bearish. For the time being, regardless of the truth of its argument, in terms of the dispute between the United States and Russia, the crude oil price may still fall in the short term under the situation that the current dispute over major powers has no end

second: whether PTA can take advantage of the situation to successfully stage a counter attack: since December 1, the domestic PTA mainstream manufacturers have significantly reduced the unit operating level, and the domestic PTA operating rate on that day has been significantly reduced from 75% to around 53%. Under the current situation that the polyester industry maintains a high profit margin, the late effect of PTA manufacturers' production restriction will be gradually reflected, and to a certain extent, it also accelerates the process of PTA manufacturers' de stocking. Even if the startup rate of the polyester industry will decline after 2015, the adaptability of PTA manufacturers will also be greatly improved. From this point of view, the production restriction of PTA manufacturers in the short term will be a positive boost to the market

again: how long is the long-term performance supported by the inventory data: driven by the lack of arrival at nearby ports and the active enthusiasm of polyester rigid demand for steady delivery, the effective inventory at the ports in the East China reservoir area of domestic ethylene glycol has decreased significantly recently, from the peak of 1.17 million tons to the current 669000 tons. The reduction of inventory is accompanied by the shortage of marketable spot goods in the market, which is also one of the reasons why businesses are bullish on the market. However, with the arrival of large ships and the normal arrival rhythm of contract goods in the later period, the declining trend of inventory will be reversed. It is expected that the inventory data in the later period may return to more than 70. Although the absolute value of inventory is still low compared with the current 80% polyester operating load, the impact of inventory increase on the current fragile market mentality can not be ignored

the short-term rebound of ethylene glycol market still faces certain resistance, and the market still has the risk of shock downward

the ethyl acetate Market has weakened

in 2014, the price of ethyl acetate has been fluctuating near the cost line, with little profit or even loss. Overcapacity and sluggish demand restrict the overall improvement of the industry. Although there was no new capacity of ethyl acetate in 2014, the effective capacity reached 3.1 million tons. The price of raw material acetic acid fell by 3.35%, and the price of ethanol was slightly adjusted by 0.23%. The support of ethyl ester cost was weakened; The demand of downstream solvent and other industries is poor, the market negotiation atmosphere is light, and the ethyl ester Market is weak

there is a stalemate in the ethyl ester Market, and the mentality of the operators is weak. At present, the ethyl ester Market has basically bottomed out. At the same time, the South China region is slightly tight, and the ethyl ester Market has limited room for reduction in the short term, or will stabilize

the market trend of butanone declined

in November, the market price of butanone fell sharply, from the weekly high price of 9844 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to the weekly low price of 9188 yuan/ton at the weekend, with a weekly decline of 6.67%. At present, the market quotation of domestic trade enterprises has dropped by 11.91% year-on-year

the domestic Ningbo butanone market has a chaotic supply of goods, and the prices in the market are fluctuating. At present, the prices are variable. The dealer's quotation has fallen by 450 yuan/ton to about 9150 yuan/ton. At present, the offer of middlemen in Jiangsu butanone market has fallen sharply, and the supply of goods in the market is relatively tight. Traders ship goods with the market. At present, the quotation of domestic supply has fallen by 450 yuan/ton to about 9150 yuan/ton. PetroChina's listed price fell by 400 yuan/ton to 9300 yuan/ton, and it was shipped out of the tank in Dongguan. The market price in Guangdong was as low as 9300 yuan/ton. There was a large price gap, and downstream purchases were made on demand. In view of the current sluggish environment and the low price of raw material C4, there is still much room for butanone to go down

the national butanone dealers said that the domestic butanone market price fell sharply due to the sharp drop in the price of CNPC butanone, the leading producer. At present, traders in the whole butanone market are bearish. In the later stage, the domestic butanone market may continue to decline, and the price may fall below 9000 yuan/ton

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